For the first time in four decades, Iraq has launched a nationwide census, a move expected to have far-reaching implications for governance and development. The process began on Wednesday under tight security, with curfews imposed across the country to ensure a smooth operation. Over two days, residents will answer more than 70 questions covering everything from household size and health status to education, employment, and even the types of appliances in homes.
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| Iraq’s first nationwide census in 40 years sparks mixed reactions. Photo: Hurriyet Daily News |
The Iraqi government has deployed approximately 140,000 trained workers equipped with tablets to collect data, allowing preliminary results to be available within 24 hours. Final results, however, are expected to take up to two months. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani emphasized the importance of the census, calling it a critical step toward informed planning for Iraq’s development and progress.
This is Iraq's first comprehensive census since 1987 and only the second since 1977. The last attempt, in 1997, excluded the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. Plans for a census in 2007 were repeatedly postponed due to political instability, and a 2009 effort was marred by violence, including the killing of census workers in Mosul.
The census carries significant political and social weight. Iraq’s governance system, established after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, balances power among its major ethnic and sectarian groups—Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims, and Kurds. With parliamentary seats allocated based on population, any change in demographic data could shift this delicate balance.
Adel Bakawan, Director of the French Research Center on Iraq, noted that the parliamentary seat count could rise from 329 to 450 based on updated figures. Such an increase could bolster Shia representation, given their higher birthrate compared to Kurds. These potential shifts have already raised concerns among various political factions.
Another contentious issue revolves around the status of Iraqi Kurdistan. Officially part of federal Iraq, the region has enjoyed significant autonomy. The 2005 Iraqi Constitution mandates a census to determine the demographic composition of disputed areas, which could reignite tensions between Kurds and Arabs.
The census also seeks to address systemic inefficiencies in governance, such as the so-called “ghost employees” phenomenon. These individuals hold multiple jobs or collect government salaries without performing their duties, with some paying bribes to supervisors to remain on payrolls. Officials hope accurate data will expose such practices and help streamline public sector employment.
To allay fears of sectarian or ethnic bias, the government has assured the public that the census will not ask individuals to disclose their sect or ethnicity, focusing solely on religious affiliation. This approach aims to avoid escalating tensions while maintaining transparency.
Experts, such as Joost Hiltermann of the Crisis Group, believe the measures taken by the government should prevent major unrest. However, the census results could still bring challenges, particularly if they reveal data that disrupts existing power structures.
As Iraq embarks on this monumental effort, the nation awaits the results that could reshape its political, social, and economic landscape. Whether the census will deliver the intended stability or further complicate matters remains to be seen.